Labour is fighting back in Wales – but the Conservatives are still on course for an historic triumph at the general election. These are the key messages to come out of the new Welsh Political Barometer poll, the very latest measure of where the parties stand in the election battle.
Following the shock of our previous poll, which gave the Conservatives an unprecedented ten-point lead in Wales, our new poll once again asked people how they would vote in a general election for the House of Commons. These are the voting intention figures that our poll produced (with changes on the last Barometer poll, conducted in late April, in brackets):
Westminster Voting Intention (excluding Don’t Knows and Would not vote)
Conservatives: 41% (+1)
Labour: 35% (+5)
Plaid Cymru: 11% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
Others: 2% (-1)
If we follow standard practice and project these results onto Wales using uniform national swings since the 2015 general election, then our latest poll implies the following overall result. (Projected changes from the 2015 result are in brackets):
Conservatives: 20 seats (+9)
Labour: 16 seats (-9)
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change
The full analysis is available on Professor Roger Scully’s blog Election in Wales.
The poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, had a sample of 1018 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from 5-7 May 2017.